Clearing the cobwebs

Cobwebs show us the skill and craftsmanship that exists in nature. The spider never undergoes a crash course in web making where it is imparted such great fundaes. The algorithm of cobweb making is like a firmware embedded into its brain at the time of its creation.
The government is like a cobweb. Every inch of the web is connected and it doesn't go anywhere. It is there to stay till eternity. And only a strong gust of wind that can blow it away. The government has recently opened the Pandora's box of trouble when it passed the RTI bill empowering every individual to question the government on supposedly everything. 

Analytics - the way ahead!

In the movie ‘Minority Report’ Steven Spielberg envisions a future where every crime in predicted before it happens and you have ‘precrime’ teams (read Tom Cruise) to take preventive measures. As part of the plot he relies on three psychics as the deus ex machine to resolve the problem of seeing the future.

Fast forward to 2011 and you will find that Predictive Analytics is being used by LAPD to locate crime hotspots in the city. LAPD doesn’t need any psychics to tell them the location of the crime. Letting analytics sift through the mountains of data helps them predict the location of crime and the beat officers are accordingly deployed at the hotspots. The new tool of analytics empowers the police to take preventive measures to deter such crimes.

It is not just criminology, but Analytics has pervaded into every aspect of our lives and is bringing about a transformation we couldn’t have imagined. When you purchase from a large retailer like Wal-Mart, based on your shopping behavior gauged through analytics, systems can accurately present you with the most cost-saving coupons that you would exercise. It can even suggest you items for purchase that you would have never thought of, but which go with your purchase. Telecom providers who are regularly calling their customers with the best call plans based on their current usage. However annoying the calls get, their recommendations bring tangible savings when implemented. Blame Analytics for their foresight.

With its capabilities, Analytics is not just benefiting the common man, but is helping global MNCs to finding better solutions for their customers.

http://www.computerworlduk.com/in-depth/applications/3318830/real-life-minority-report-analytics-assist-police-in-detecting-crime/

Why there won't be an online CAT in 2009!

It is the time of the year when the young minds of this country are fully immersed in their books mugging hard for all the competitive examinations that are about to come in month of Nov. The most important and most prestigious among them is the Combined Aptitude Test or CAT. This is the exam that will help many to take the career escalator. Approximately 2.5 lakh students are about to give this exam and preparing for this exam is a grueling task, for people who have already passed their graduation / post-graduation have to go back and open their wren'n'martins' and 10th standard math books and mug them up. After all that is what CAT asks you. And you have so many coaching classes willing to help you out to get trained on solving these templatized problems using "shortcuts" and "tips and tricks" that they preach. And after so many years of training for CAT many institutes have sprung up. Chief among them are IMS, TIME, Career Launcher, Pegasus and what not. Also there are message boards to collaborate on MBA preparation like pagalguy.com and totalgadha.com. Through their money making schemes they are trying to hit the aspirants top, bottom and center trying to squeeze out every penny from their pockets. In these situations, any utterance by some IIM professor on the changes in CAT pattern is taken as an oracle and publicized by these coaching classes claiming that they are well prepared to help their students out in tackling this new situation. The whole aim is to instill this fear in the mind of the aspirant that dream might remain a dream and not turn into a reality. After all that's what they are here for. Aren't they? So when one of the IIM dons mentioned that they are thinking of taking the CAT online from next year, our coaching classes carefully deleted "thinking" and went ahead creating posters boldly proclaiming 'CAT to go ONLINE starting 2009.' But I would like to let the aspirants know that ye nahi ho sakta. Here's why.
Computers even though accessible to everyone of you who is reading the blog might not be accessible to the Indian 'have-not'. These 'have-not' comprise a large section of population who come from the flood plains of Kosi to the hilly areas of Ladakh, to the average construction worker in the big cities. Many of them might not have the means and money to access the computer but they definitely have the aspiration to make it big in life. And no exam in India can deny them this right if they are capable. And so if a siginficant chunk of the country can not prepare for such kind of an examination owing to the high barriers of prepartion cost it won't be a true competition.

Secondly, an MBA exam that comes closest to CAT in terms of importance is the GMAT. GMAT is a computer based program, also called Computer Adaptive Test. The idea behind these exams is that the level of difficulty of every question changes with how the examinee answered the previous question and hence necessitates the use of computers. Now in case it is planned to implement CAT on computers there will be two ways in which such a exam can be handled, each with its own issues.
In case IIMs plan to implement the examination on same date it will have issues with implementing the exam. From where can you get 2.5 lakh computers for a day with all the required softwares installed? And in case there is a glitch with one of the computers how do you deal with that situation Yes, yes. I can hear you people saying 'Is tereh CAT nahi ho sakta'. And it is actually not possible to implement such kind of an examination.

The other option with IIMs is that they go for exams that are scheduled just like the GMAT where you take your date and go for exams and get a score on that date. However even GMAC had to face certain issues with their method of testing after all the world is not an ideal place. So imagine what will happen in case you have 2.3 lakh people giving exam round the year. No soon a person comes out of the test center he will be trounced by his friends wanting to know 'live questions' and he will have to comply. That way the life cycle of a live question will be very short and it will be very difficult for the IIMs to go and create new questions every day.
Given so much of trouble my guess is that IIMs will not never ever change the way in which the exams will be conducted and will try the time tested menthod of bringing variations in the pattern to seperate the chaff from hay.
So gentlemen, stop worrying about online / offline CAT and start preparing.

Know your customers!

The essence of running a good business lies in empathizing with the customer and understanding his pain or pleasure points. Different people have different requirements and so you need to know your customers well enough. Sometime it pains me to see insolent businesses who treat their customers like shit. These businesses deserve to go bankrupt if they cannot give the respect the customers situation. On the other hand it is a delight to see when businesses actually take care of the situation the customers are in and make amends to their ways in order to ease the customers' pain.

I believe that it doesn't take a lot to draw this point on your customer that your business cares.

A recent example is the way in which two of India's biggest private bank ICICI and HDFC have created online interface. The above image is the virtual keyboard of HDFC bank online account.

The image posted below is typical of ICICIs virtual keyboard.And mind you, this keyboard configuration keeps changing everytime you login. Being a customer of both these banks I was trying to figure out one day why do these immecable banks have different approaches towards somethings as simple as a virtual key board.
The virtual keyboard of HDFC is the standard qwerty keyboard which rings the familiarity of the normal keboard except that you use a mouse to punch alphabets. On the hand ICICI has the dynamic keyboard where the keys move from one place to another every time you login. So why so much of a difference over something that has become so mundane. I guess someone at ICICI did a through study of user habits before arriving at keyboard structure.

Most of the users of online accounts check their accounts from office or cafe where you have a reliable internet connection. But both of these places have the problem of pests who keep staring at your screen making you uncomfortable at times.

The virtual keyboard made the sites more secure towards password threats through the internet, but at the same times it makes the user vulnerable to people who are around him, who don't feel the moral obligation to let others have their privacy. You will find suspicious colleagues in office who would like to have a glance at your screen and peeping toms in cybercafes openly staring who will not stop staring unless you ask them to.
Aakhir aankhein to bhagwan ne di hai. Hum to sirf dekh rahe the.
Now I don't think people at HDFC would have thought of such kind of inconvenience to the customer. But it was a stroke of genius that hit ICICI which came up with such an idea. It goes to show why ICICI is No. 1 and HDFC No. 2. I am sure it would'nt have taken ICICI anymore money than HDFC to develop that interface, but even in those simple matters ICICI took the lead. It goes to show that you just need to let your customers know that they are the king. And they surely will reciprocate.

Citius, Altius, Fortius!

Long time back I had heard of a econometric analysis that created models based on country's economy and population to predict the performance of the country in the Olympics. You can find the article here.

To summarize, the article talks about the fact that there are a lot of factors that go in the world class athletes that it creates. One of them is the population of the country. The idea behind this factor is that if a population of a country is large it provides a larger pool of people to choose from, and thus they are more likely to produce finer athletes. Another important factor that the model takes into consideration is the size and rate of growth of the economy. A country which has a higher GDP will tend to have more infrastructure for the upbringing of world class athletes and people will have more time to invest in sports because fewer people from those countries will have hand to mouth existence.
The model that was created for the Athens 2004 Olympics was reasonably successful in prediction the success rates of different countries with respect to their performance, reinforcing the assumptions that went into creating the models. But there were a few countries which were outliers, in the sense that their performance was totally opposite to the prediction. Countries on the positive side of the out lire spectrum were the countries which were part of the erstwhile soviet bloc. Economist reasoned out the though the new countries formed out the soviet block had their economy in shambles, but the infrastructure of pre-soviet era some how survived and still manages to deliver great athletes to the world. On the other hand countries like India. with its billions figures nowhere in the list. I find it surprising that with a population of a billion people and a GDP in excess of 1 trillion dollars we are at the rock bottom of the list. There are countries like Jamaica, and Afghanistan which come nowhere in the list of GDP and population but have a medal tally that brings us to shame. I think it is about time that we turn back and have a scrutiny at what is wrong with our approach.
The previous edition of ToI which had Abhinav Bindra as the guest editor hits at the core of the issue. In his words "The biggest problem is the lack of knowledge among those who run sport and in the vast mesh of inept coaches who are unable to provide the finer technical nuances which make all the difference." He also brings up the idea that we are a country without a vision for sports. There are thoroughaway coaches who are surviving because of being in the good books of some politician and there are brilliant people struggling in the nook and corner of India because of inadequate facilities. We need to get rid of the inertia in the system. Abhinav has put everything very succinctly in his editorial when he talks about what ails the system and what IOA needs to do to counter that.
To reach the ambitious goal of reaching double digit in medals in London Olympics we need to start now. Merely by assigning a large fund in India doesn't give any results. You have to be on top of the execution to see the idea getting executed.
Warna un paison se Lalu ji ke bachhon ki hobbies poori hogi.
Since the fund that we have for sport is limited we need to spend it judiciously.A recent ariticle in ToI highlights the amount of money it takes to build a sports person. Imagine, spending 15-20k bucks per month for training in tennis. Who can afford so much money except for the Mallyas and the Bindras. We do not have the luxury to train lots of people and select few of them. The selection has to be the first stage.
Therefore, the first thing that needs to be done is to have coaches scout for talent across India and not just limit themselves to the metropolitan cities. These coaches need not be a regular full time employee of the sports association but he should be paid on the basis of the kind of talent he is able to scout. This will push them to be in the lookout for talented people and not just send their bhai-bhatijas. Next thing is to decide on what sports you want to focus. The rich haul of medals for China and UK has come because of their focus certain sports. I believe that there are a lot of sports Indians are inherently good at and we can capitalize on them to get medals in the Olympics. It is only through such focus that we can get maximum returns for the limited fund that the government has.
The next important thing is to have good coaches. I am not asking good coaches at the scouting level. Great coaches are needed at the end stage of the program when you have to hone the athletes with skills and tricks that will set them apart from the bunch at the olympics podium. Look at what Houghton has done to Indian football. The importance of good coaches cannot be emphasized any more. We should be willing to accept any nationality as a coach as long has he helps us get the medals.
At the end we need to realize that sports and Olympics are not just past times but have larger repercussions on the morale of the nation. And India, the youngest nation in the world needs more than a single gold.
Ye race hai. koi deshbhakti ka dandi march nahi!

The case of migrants

Migration is a phenomenon that is part of nature. Visible in both the animal kingdom, migration helps birds and animals to move from harsher environs to places that offer refuge and food. It is a part of existence that helps in the survival of the fittest. For some living beings like migratory birds it has become such a feature that they have developed special body features that helps them in their migration. However the idea of migration is not only confined to birds and animal but also extends to us mortals.
We have always had the capacity to change the our surroundings. This has enabled us to thrive in a variety of ecosystems ranging from hot and humid Sahara to the cold North pole. They are the harsh conditions created by nature over which one have no control. But environment and habitat is not the only condition why people migrate.
Migration can also have an aspirational reason. Perhaps it was the aspirations of those millions of Europeans who touched American shores in the 1800s, which has made America into what it is. The yearning and hope for a better future brought them on the American shores devoid of any material possessions. And it was this yearning and spirit of risk-taking that created great men like Henry Ford and John D. Rockefeller.
We don't need to look further to America to find the influence of migrants to our society. Even in a country like ours we have communities migrate more often. The Marwadis are one such kind of people. They are ubiquitous across the length and breadth of India. The Marwadis are people of Rajasthan, which is know for its arid climate and difficult conditions. Probably it is the hard conditions that people have to face that imbibes them with tenacity and risk taking ability. And these people have moved to different parts of India where they have struck gold with hard work and determination to succeed. This I believe is nothing but a direct out come of their industrious nature. The work done by these people not only benefits them but also helps the local populace when industries created by the migrants flourish. Take the case of the parsis. They are another community who fled from Iran and reached the port of Bombay. Here by their business acumen they have built huge empires which has not only benefited them but has also helped India to develop and industrialize.
Therefore at this juncture when I see a whole lot of benefits that the migrants bring for the local populace I wonder why politicians raise the bugle to oust migrants. After all you were happy when they worked for you. And now when they have prospered after all these years of toil and hard work why are they perceived like foes by the local populace?
As long as the country is united I don't see any reason why people cannot be allowed to move to other parts of the county to seek a better life and living. That is the reason why God gave us legs!

Writing Blogs

Before I started this blog I just wanted to take up something that was different, Something that was challenging and creative. Sooner I realized that a blog provides you with a space to do all the three. It is different since I have found very few people who write blogs on a regular basis. It is challenging because I find it to be challenging. And it is creative.
Now being creative in blog may differ from person to person. For some people being creative is easy. Seems like they are spontaneously creative, while others like me have a hard time expressing my self in words. But just because the task is daunting it should not deter me or for that matter anyone from expressing myself. If you think through, you can definitely pinpoint a few aspects on which you have more knowledge many others. That can be a starting point. Or you might find that the current set of articles available on the web are biased or do not present an alternative view point. In such case the blog is your oyster. Write whatever you like.

From the collection of the blogs that I generally read I classify them into these varieties

• Issue centric / Opinionated - These blogs are like 'The Dilbert blog' which has a method of jesting at the worldly ways. But in the garb of humor you can see that they question some of the very basic concepts of society and nation, like elections and need for war. Note that you may or may not agree with the author on each and every question but the way in which they go about dissecting the issues is interesting. And they listen a lot to their readers who approve / disapprove of their ideas. Every post becomes more like a melting pot where every idea is discussed before arriving at any conclusions. The greatest thing that about such kind of blogs is that in the discussion forums that they get transformed into, it is the force of the idea that counts rather than the person who said it. There is currently a list of posts on the Obama vs. McCain debate which can give a lot of insight on the nuances of US presidential elections.

• Domain Centric - A lot of people write blogs centered around what they do in life and what they are passionate about. You can find a lot of blogs of such kind. I really kind of appreciate such kind of people who are passionate about their work and so willing to share it with others. The innovation economy blog is such kind of a blog which talks a lot on innovation. There are several of this kind like the blogs of Guy Kawasaki, and Freakonomics blog. These kind of blogs are not only limited to economics, entrepreneurship or innovation but cover a very wide variety of subjects. People who have knowledge can share it with the world through the blogs that they write. For example you will find a lot of blogs that cater to subjects ranging for business to economics to CSR to Java. They get a lot of visibility from people who are focused in these areas.

• Speaking what is on mind - Here we have another set of blogs on whatever people like to share. Some use blogs to vent out their feelings. Some use it as a diary to give people a sneak-peek into their way of life. Everyone is at a different stage of his/her life and wonders about what the next stage is gonna be. For them your blog might be extremely useful to understand the nuances and the pleasures of the next life. Be it parenting, be it parties, everything is worth writing and sharing.

Please note the list of categories that I have just listed is not comprehensive and is a very broad categorization. But if you want to start a blog, it will help you in getting started. And remember it is never too late to start.

Curbing the invisible hand.

The name of Adam Smith generates intense respect for one and all in the academia. The father of economic theory who propounded the theories of free trade and the principle of the invisible hand. In The Wealth of Nations and other writings, Smith demonstrated that, in a free market, an individual pursuing his own self-interest tends to also promote the good of his community as a whole through a principle that he called “the invisible hand”. This principle has the basic conditions of free market and presence of rational individuals pursuing his own self-interest. But in a modern democratic society both of these conditions are compromised to some extent. The first condition of free market gets defeated in the various criss-cross of policies and permits inside and outside the country. And when we talk about rational individuals, not every one has an equal say in the affairs of economics. People who have more power, lead the way and when such beings choose not to act in a selfish manner, the equilibrium that we call economics can collapse.
The biggest and most powerful individual that we can imagine who controls lots of aspects of our life is the government that we choose. Yes, with its long list of bureaucrats and politicians we can imagine the sovereign government to be a pantagruelian monster which affects a significant portion of our life. And it is this monster that sometimes takes irrational decisions which can affect the state of economy and curb the invisible hand.
Take the recent case of increase in oil prices that is affecting the country and pulling down the much acclaimed growth story of India. The finance minister throws his hand in the air and says "great injustice" was being done to developing countries as a result of the volatility in oil prices.

While I would agree that oil prices are moving more north than expected, but there are a lot of things that the government can still do to check the impact of this volatility in oil prices. The prime thing being reduction in the cost of refining. If we compare the refining margins between the nationalized and private Indian refiners, we find a wide gap. The margins of private refiners is close to one and half times that of the government refiners like IOC, BPCL and HPCL. Shouldn't the government look into this anomaly? We are spending thousands of crores of taxpayers money into issuing oil bonds for the government owned oil companies. Can't we spend a few hundred crores into improving efficiency of these refineries.
Also, any refinery consumes approximately 6% of its total refining volume. When we say that the refining margin is low it means that the oil companies themselves consume a big chunk of the oil that they were supposed to supply to the office goer. This chunk has to be imported and this further increase the trade deficit. Both these instances leave a big hole in the fabric of economy. This hole needs to plugged by improving technology asap, or else the boat will sink.
Another options could be to also provide a level playing field to all the refiners in India by providing all of them equal subsidy irrespective of whether they are public or private. Private Indian refiners have one of the highest refining margins in the world. Therefore at a time when oil has become so costly why should we continue to waste so much of oil in refining it? Provide subsidy to all companies and let the best refiner win. The competition will ensure that the all refiners tighten their belt.
The government should raise the oil price at petrol pumps. This will trigger a effort among all citizens to save oil. Remember, by exhorting the virtues of austere living you cannot achieve results. It is only when you show them benefits can you make them do what you expect them to do.

Let common sense prevail !!